A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
