Just eight weeks in the past that Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while his coach admonished him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, the question was if his displays were a symptom or a cause for the team's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. After the England international swept in his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, the boss tore off his jacket, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their initial half-dozen games, find themselves just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Challengers?
That’s an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the wins have stacked up.
As per statistical analysis, twice all season has the side posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club which has put together a ten-match winning streak, they seem curiously susceptible – but currently the fine lines are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with rivals before hoping their star man to rescue them with two clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again versus United.
His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the post from a wide position. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opposition managed more efforts and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge they have to face as the season progresses. The forward, surely, will not continue to thrashing the ball into the top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Could it be another reality whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the force he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.
This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the hero positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.
